Decision Sciences Journal
Volume 29, Number 2
Spring 1998

The Consequences of Role-conferred Bias and Base-rate Neglect

Kenneth H. Doerr
School of Business, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL 33124, email: kdoerr@exchange.sba.miami.edu

Terence R. Mitchell
School of Business, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, email: trm@u.washington.edu

Abstract: This study examines the effect of training to reduce biases and heuristics on the consequence of judgments. We demonstrate that untrained subjects’ judgments may systematically yield better consequences than judgments of subjects trained to reduce biases and heuristics. This result implies that educators should use caution when interpreting the findings of biases and heuristics research. In establishing the existence of situations in which biases and heuristics produce better consequences than an unbiased, or normative procedure, we open the larger question of the need for an elaboration of the prescriptive uses of the normative procedures.

Subject Areas: Bias, Heuristics, Information Use, and Judgment Analysis.