Decision Sciences Journal
Volume 30, Number 1
Winter 1999
Selecting a Portfolio of Technologies: An Application of
Decision Analysis
Jack A. Jackson
IDA/JAWP, 1801 N. Beauregard St., Alexandria, VA 22311-1772,
email: jajackso@ida.org
Jack M. Kloeber, Jr., Brian E. Ralston, and Richard F.
Deckro
Department of Operational Sciences, Air Force Institute of Technology,
Wright-Patterson AFB, OH 45433-7765, email: jkloeber@afit.af.mil
Abstract. The Department of Energy is faced with the
critical and complex decision of selecting technologies for waste
site remediation. This research focuses on developing a decision
support tool which assists the decision maker to find an optimal
portfolio. A portfolio consists of selecting the appropriate
processes for a remediation site and, subsequently, selecting
a technology for each process so that the decision maker’s
objectives are achieved. The measures supporting the objectives
are risk, life-cycle cost, and time required for remediation.
The model uses exponential attribute utility functions with an
additive objective function. The model provides the decision
maker with estimates of the cost and time distributions, and
their associated utility. Cumulative frequency distributions
illustrate the dominance of technology choices and the variance
in the results. The model permits sensitivity analysis in the
form of rainbow and tornado diagrams to display the effects of
changes in the values of the input variables. Overall, the model
provides a generic technology selection tool that can be used
to make better informed decisions and may be easily manipulated
to reflect changes in the remediation process.
Subject Areas: Decision Analysis, Environmental Remediation,
Strategic Decision Policy, Strategic Public Policy, and Technology
Management. |